Prediction of low birth weight at term in low resource setting of Gulu city, Uganda: a prospective cohort study
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Date
2022-11-08
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
PAMJ
Abstract
Introduction: despite the widespread poverty in
Northern Uganda resulting in undernutrition, not
all
mothers deliver low birth weight babies.
Therefore, we developed and validated the risk
prediction models for low birth weight at term in
Northern Uganda from a prospective cohort study.
Methods: one thousand mothers were recruited
from 16 - 24 weeks of gestation and followed up
until delivery. Six hundred and eighty-seven
mothers delivered at term. The others were either
lost to follow-up or delivered preterm. Used
proportions to compute incidence of low birth
weight at term, build models for prediction of low
birth weight at term in RStudio. Since there were
few low birth weight at term, were generated
synthetic data using ROSE-package in RStudio by
over-sampling low birth weights and under
sampling normal birth weights, and evaluated the
model performance against the synthetic data
using K (10) - fold cross-validation. Results: mean
age was 26.3 years with an average parity of 1.5.
Their mean body mass index was 24.7 and 7.1%
(49 of 687) had lateral placenta. The incidence of
low birth weight was 5.7% (39 of 687). Predictors
of low birth weight were gravidity, level of
education, serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT),
serum
gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT),
lymphocyte count, placental location, and end
diastolic notch in the uterine arteries. This
predicted low birth weight at term by 81.9% area
under the curve (AUC), 76.1% accuracy, 72.9%
specificity, and 79.1% sensitivity. Conclusion: a
combination of gravidity, level of education, serum
ALT, serum GGT, lymphocyte count, placental
location, and end-diastolic notch in the uterine
arteries can be used for screening for low birth
weight in prenatal clinics for screening low birth
weight at term.
Description
Keywords
Risk, prediction, low birth weight, Uganda, Africa
Citation
Silvia Awor et al. Prediction of low birth weight at term in low resource setting of Gulu city, Uganda: a prospective cohort study. PAMJ Clinical Medicine. 2022;10(28). 10.11604/pamj-cm.2022.10.28.37102